Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
