The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Villa's Surprising Title Charge

It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason of the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Elation

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their star man to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

A reversion to average could be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.

  • Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.

Dawn Miller
Dawn Miller

AI researcher and computer vision specialist with a passion for making complex topics accessible.