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Growing apprehensions are present regarding the potential of armed conflict between East African neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a intense war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a approach of retaking former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on mid-September that efforts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the both nations.

However, in the country, national TV has broadcast completion events of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict followed, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders signed a announcement that the war was over – a action that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.