A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
